Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 December 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels with only B-class
activity observed. Two filament eruptions were observed during the
period. A 40 degree long filament, centered near N25E25, was first
observed erupting at about 11/0600Z. Shortly after, a 10 degree
long filament, centered near N30W17, was first observed lifting off
at about 11/0900Z. Stereo-A COR2 imagery observed a pair of CMEs
off the NE limb at 11/0754Z and 11/1024Z as a result of the filament
activity. At this time, neither of these CMEs are expected to be
geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity all three days
of the period (12 – 14 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
velocities generally varied between 450 to 500 km/s while the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much
beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels all three days of the period
(12 – 14 December).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 134
Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 135/135/135
90 Day Mean 11 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01