Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted
of a single B-class flare, a B4 at 1117Z from Region 1131 (N31W47).
Regions 1131 and 1133 (N15W22) were generally quiet and stable
during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for the 1st day (12 December) in
response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet levels are
expected to prevail for the 2nd and 3rd days (13-14 December).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 087
Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 088/089/090
90 Day Mean 11 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/05
Minor storm 15/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01