Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Dec 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Dec 11 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 711 (N13W34) has
shown slight growth in both area and number of spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active levels were due to
the effects of a CME from 8 December. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storming periods
possible on 12 December. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
on 13, 14 December.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 11 Dec 090
- Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 090/090/090
- 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 008/010
- Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 012/018
- Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 015/020-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/20/15
- Minor storm 15/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/25/20
- Minor storm 20/10/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05