Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Dec 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Dec 11 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Only B-class flares
have occurred. No significant development was observed from the
active regions on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm conditions.
Solar wind speed remains steady at around 800 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Activity in the geomagnetic
field should decrease over the next few days as the coronal hole
causing this elevated activity rotates out of geoeffective position.
Active to minor storm conditions are expected on 12-13 December,
with isolated major storming possible. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected on 14 December, with isolated minor storming
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 11 Dec 086
- Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 085/090/090
- 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 024/042
- Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 030/040
- Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 025/040-020/035-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/35/40
- Minor storm 40/40/30
- Major-severe storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/40/50
- Minor storm 45/40/30
- Major-severe storm 15/10/05
