Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 August 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Several low-level B-class
flares were observed during the period. Region 1098 (N15E28) was
numbered and was classified as a Dro spot group with a beta magnetic
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a chance for a C-class flare from Region 1098.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with a single
unsettled period between 11/06-09Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (12-14 August).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 086
Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 086/087/087
90 Day Mean 11 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01