Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE gradually decreased to approximately 487 km/s at 11/2100Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 12 August. Quiet conditions are expected on 13 and 14 August.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 11 Aug 068
• Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 11 Aug 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/013
• Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 010/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01