Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Aug 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
August 11, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Aug 2006
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Aug 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 904 (S13E51) continued to develop in size and complexity, and produced four C-class flares today, the largest of which was a C2.8 flare at 11/0041 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a possibility of M-class activity from Region 904.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 11 Aug 084
  • Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 085/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 11 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 004/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 005/005-003/005-003/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/10/10
  • Minor storm 05/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.