Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Aug 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
August 11, 2003
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Aug 2003

SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Several
impulsive B-class flares comprised today’s flare activity. Region
424 (S18W54) has shown a slight decrease in penumbral coverage today
although it continues to exhibit beta-gamma characteristics. Region
431 (S13E43) also underwent slight decay and it too appears to
possess a beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Region 424.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the first two
days of the period due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream. Day three should decrease to predominantly unsettled
conditions as the coronal hole wanes.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug

  • Class M 20/20/20
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 11 Aug 129
  • Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 130/125/120
  • 90 Day Mean 11 Aug 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 009/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 008/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 020/020-020/035-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/25
  • Minor storm 20/20/10
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/45/40
  • Minor storm 20/35/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/15/05

SpaceRef staff editor.