Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 April 2012

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Apr 11 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. An emerging flux region was numbered today as Region 1455
(N07E08) and was magnetically classified as a beta group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a slight chance for C-class events for the next
three days (12-14 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
active conditions for the next three days (12-14 April) as a coronal
hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 093
Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 11 Apr 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 008/012-007/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/30
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10