Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 11 Apr 2009

By SpaceRef Editor
April 12, 2009
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Apr 11 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. The solar disk continues to be void of sunspots.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period from 0000-0300Z. Solar wind velocity remained elevated during the past 24 hours, ranging between 500-560 km/s. The solar wind signatures are consistent with the continuation of a high speed stream from a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with a chance for unsettled levels and a slight chance for an isolated active period on the first day (12 April) due to the continued presence of elevated solar wind velocities. Activity levels are expected to be quiet for the second and third days (13-14 April).

III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 11 Apr 069
  • Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 070/070/070
  • 90 Day Mean 11 Apr 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 006/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 007/009
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 007/007-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/05/05
  • Minor storm 05/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/05/05
  • Minor storm 05/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.