Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Sep 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Sep 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to briefly unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during days 1 – 2 (11 -12 September). Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on day 3 (13 September) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream begins to influence the field.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 10 Sep 067
- Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 066/066/066
- 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 004/006
- Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 004/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/05/20
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/10/25
- Minor storm 01/01/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01