Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Sep 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Sep 10 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 672
(N05E60) produced multiple C-class flares today, the largest was a
C6 x-ray flare that occurred at 10/1613Z. Region 671 (S09W81) was
quiescent today and is approaching the western solar limb. Region
669 (S06W78) was also quiet today and exhibited slight growth in the
intermediate cluster of spots during the period. No new regions
were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
mostly low levels with a chance for an isolated M-class flare,
particularly from Region 672.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep

• Class M 30/30/30
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Sep 130
• Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 120/125/125
• 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 004/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 005/008-008/008-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep-13 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/15/20
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05