Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1313 (S15E01) was the most active region, producing
multiple low level C-class events. New Region 1315 (N20E08) was
numbered early in the period and is current magnetically classified
as a beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels with a slight chance for M-class events, for the next
three days (11-13 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for
an isolated active period on day one (11 October), as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. Predominantly
quiet levels are expected on days two and three (12-13 October) as
effects from the high speed stream wane.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 126
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 008/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01