Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1112 (S18E54)
produced a few moderate level B-class flares during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels with a slight chance for C-class
activity for the next three days (11 – 13 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels at
high latitudes on days one and two (11 – 12 October). This activity
is due to a small, geoeffective coronal hole coupled with glancing
blow effects from the 06 October full-halo CME. Day three (13
October) will see a return to mostly quiet conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 076
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 076/078/078
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 001/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 008/008-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01