Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 – 2 (11 –
12 October) due to weak recurrent coronal hole effects. Activity is
expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (13 October) as
coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 070
Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 10 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01