Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Oct 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A new region was numbered today as Region 1004 (S08W17).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for 11 October. Unsettled to active conditions are expected for 12-13 October as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Oct 069
• Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 069/069/070
• 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 001/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 005/005-012/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/30/15
• Minor storm 01/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/40/20
• Minor storm 01/20/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05