Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Oct 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels. The visible solar disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the forecast period. There is a chance for an isolated period of unsettled conditions on day one (11 October), due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Oct 068
• Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 069/069/069
• 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 000/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01