Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Oct 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Oct 10 2203 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity remains at very low levels. Region 813 (S07W48) continues to decay.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity continues at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A coronal hole high speed stream remains in effect, with solar wind speed ranging 600 – 650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are possible at high latitudes.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Oct 079
• Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 080/080/085
• 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 007/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 010/010-010/010-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 05/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01