Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Oct 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Oct 10 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low. There are no numbered active regions currently on the
visible disk.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels from 11 Oct through 13
Oct. There’s an increasing chance for periods of active levels from
12 Oct through 13 Oct due to the effects of a recurrent high-speed
solar wind stream.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Oct 089
• Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 085/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 003/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 010/012-012/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/35/40
• Minor storm 15/20/20
• Major-severe storm 05/10/10