Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Nov 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless and no flares were observed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days 1 and 2 of the forecast period (11-12 November). Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to occasionally active levels at mid lititudes on day 3 (13 November), with a slight chance for minor storming at high latitudes, as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Nov 070
• Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 069/069/069
• 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 005/005-005/005-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/25
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/35
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10