Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 923 (S06E58) has not produced any activity over the past 24 hours. Region 921 has rotated off the solar disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. Elevated solar wind speed due to the coronal hole high speed stream, combined with Bz varying between +/- 10 nT, produced multiple major storm periods at high latitudes. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 600 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 11 November as the coronal hole high speed stream wanes. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 12-13 November.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Nov 091
• Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 090/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 007/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 030/040
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 010/015-005/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/15
• Minor storm 20/15/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01