Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 May 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained
spotless. Only low-level B-class activity was noted, all from
Region 1069 as it rotated off the disk at N41.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels, with
isolated active periods, all three days of the forecast period (11 –
13 May). The anticipated increase in activity levels is due to a
series of coronal hole high speed wind streams, located in both
solar hemispheres, that will become geoeffective through the period.
III. Event Probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 074
Predicted 11 May-13 May 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 10 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 008/008-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/35/30
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01