Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 May 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 May 10 2200 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. B1 flares were observed
at 10/0304Z and 10/1216Z. No spots were observed on the visible
disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet for the forecast period (11-13 May).

III. Event Probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 May 072
Predicted 11 May-13 May 072/072/073
90 Day Mean 10 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01