Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 May 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
May 10, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 10 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A disappearing solar
filament was observed on 10 May at approximately 0350 UTC from the
area of Region 606 (S09E40).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet through 12 May, then increase slightly to
unsettled levels on 13 May with the possible effects of the
disappearing solar filament of 10 May.

III. Event Probabilities 11 May-13 May

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 10 May 093
  • Predicted 11 May-13 May 095/090/090
  • 90 Day Mean 10 May 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 007/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 006/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 005/010-005/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/35
  • Minor storm 10/10/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/35
  • Minor storm 15/15/25
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.