Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 May 2003

SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. No significant flares have
occurred in the last 24 hours, and no new regions have been
numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels from
yesterday through 10/1600 UTC. Since then conditions have been
predominately unsettled. The high speed solar wind continues, but
has lessened from the 750-900 km/s of yesterday to a steady 620
km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes continue to be at high
levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at unsettled to active levels for the next day,
with an increase to unsettled to minor storm levels beginning at the
end of tomorrow due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. There
is a chance for periods of major storm levels beginning on day two,
and into day three.

III. Event Probabilities 11 May-13 May

• Class M 10/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 May 093
• Predicted 11 May-13 May 095/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 10 May 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 May 020/029
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May 020/042
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May 015/020-020/025-025/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/40/40
• Minor storm 15/20/25
• Major-severe storm 05/10/15

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/40/40
• Minor storm 20/25/30
• Major-severe storm 10/20/25