Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Mar 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Mar 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during the first two days of the forecast period (11 – 12 March). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to active levels on day 3 (13 March) with a chance for minor to major storm periods at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Mar 070
• Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 005/005-005/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/20
• Minor storm 01/01/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/30
• Minor storm 01/01/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05