Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Mar 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
March 10, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Mar 10 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 741 (N13W11)
produced a C7.3 flare at 1142 UTC. No significant development was
observed from active regions on the visible disk, and no new regions
were numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 741 and 742 (S05E31) may produce isolated
C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater
than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at
high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days. Active conditions
are possible late on 13 March due to the arrival of a recurrent high
speed solar wind stream as a small coronal hole rotates into
geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar

  • Class M 15/15/15
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 10 Mar 102
  • Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 110/110/115
  • 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 013/020
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 012/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 008/010-005/010-005/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.