Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Mar 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Mar 10 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 741 (N13W11)
produced a C7.3 flare at 1142 UTC. No significant development was
observed from active regions on the visible disk, and no new regions
were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 741 and 742 (S05E31) may produce isolated
C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater
than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at
high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled all three days. Active conditions
are possible late on 13 March due to the arrival of a recurrent high
speed solar wind stream as a small coronal hole rotates into
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
- Class M 15/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 10 Mar 102
- Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 110/110/115
- 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 013/020
- Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 012/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 008/010-005/010-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/25/25
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
