Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Mar 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Mar 10 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 570(S14E20)
produced several B-class flares. The region grew slightly in size
and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 571
(S14W13) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 570 may produce occassional C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels.
Solar wind speed has been steady at about 675 km/s from the effects
of a geoeffective coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions, with isolated
minor storm conditions possible on 11 March and early into 12 March.
Activity should decrease to quiet and unsettled levels on 13 March
as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
- Class M 15/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 10 Mar 113
- Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 115/115/110
- 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 112
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 011/021
- Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 025/045
- Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 020/030-018/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 40/40/40
- Minor storm 30/30/25
- Major-severe storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 45/45/45
- Major-severe storm 15/15/10
