Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Mar 2003
SDF Number 069 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest
flare of the period was a C2.0/Sf event that occurred at 10/1754Z
from Region 310 (S16W62). This region has been in decay throughout
the period. Region 306 (N05E34) was responsible for lesser B-class
flares and has also shown some decay. Most of the spotted regions
were quiescent during the period. New Region 312 (N09W25) was newly
assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
An isolated active period occurred at mid and high latitudes
between 10/1200 and 1500Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the first 48
hours of the period. Day three should experience active conditions
due to a co-rotating interactive region that has preceded a
recurrent coronal hole over the past several rotations.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 10 Mar 144
- Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 140/140/135
- 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 008/011
- Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 010/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 006/010-006/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/25
- Minor storm 01/01/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/25/35
- Minor storm 05/10/20
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
