Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C2 x-ray flare occurred at
10/1751Z and appeared to originate from old Region 1226 (S22,
L=037), which crossed the west limb yesterday. Region 1234 (S16E43)
produced an isolated B-class flare and remained a simply-structured
Bxo-type group. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (11 – 13 June) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels during the period.
Active levels occurred at Boulder during 09/2100 – 10/0000Z
associated with increased solar wind speeds and IMF Bt, coupled with
a period of southward IMF Bz. Quiet to unsettled levels occurred
after 10/0000Z. A geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) occurred at
10/0855Z (15 nT, Boulder USGS magnetometer). The SI was in response
to the arrival of the halo-coronal mass ejection observed on 07
June. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the period (11 –
13 June) with a chance for brief active levels during 11 – 12 June
due to a coronal hole high-speed stream, expected to commence on 11
June.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 087
Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 086/086/086
90 Day Mean 10 Jun 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01