Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Jun 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jun 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted of a single B-class flare from Region 892 (S07W14) at 1639Z. The region remains beta-gamma but appears stable and generally unchanged compared to yesterday. Region 893 (S02E10) has decreased somewhat in area.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind velocity remains somewhat elevated, but is decreasing steadily and has not enhanced geomagnetic activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (11 – 13 June).

III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Jun 076
• Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 10 Jun 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 009/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 010/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 007/010-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05