Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Jun 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
June 10, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 10 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 772 (S18W84)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C2 x-ray event that
occurred at 10/0310Z. Region 775 (N08W05) underwent a slight decay
in penumbral coverage today. The southern appendage off the
dominant spot in the cluster continues to exhibit delta
characteristics. No flares were observed from this region during the
period. Region 776 (S06E07) also appeared to show a slight decay
over the interval although the region continues to depict moderate
magnetic complexity. Region 777 (N05E57) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 775 and 776 are both capable of producing an
isolated low level M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Beginning late on 11 June, isolated active conditions may occur due
to the arrival of the very faint partial halo CME that occurred on 8
June.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun

  • Class M 40/40/40
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 10 Jun 114
  • Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 110/100/100
  • 90 Day Mean 10 Jun 094

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 003/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 003/007
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 003/007-010/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/20/15
  • Minor storm 05/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/30/20
  • Minor storm 05/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.