Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Jun 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
June 10, 2003
Filed under , ,

SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been very high. Region 375 (N12W46)
produced major flare activity including an X1.7 event at 09/2139 UTC
with an associated Type II radio sweep and was optically correlated
with SXI imagery. The region also produced numerous M-class flares
including an M5.1/2n flare at 10/1112 UTC, and an M5.6/Sf flare at
10/1815 UTC. Region 375 continued its rapid growth over the period
(an increase to 1200 millionths), and maintains its delta magnetic
configuration. Region 380 (S15E29) increased in magnetic complexity
to a beta-gamma-delta configuration. An optically uncorrelated Type
IV radio sweep was observed at 0014 UTC. LASCO imagery observed a
partial-halo CME beginning at 10/0606 UTC, most likely associated
with former Region 365 (S07,L=182) on the back side of the sun. New
Region 382 (S18W17) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 both remain capable of
producing a major flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels.
This activity is due to continued coronal hole high speed stream
effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor
storm conditions through day one. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected for days two and three as solar wind speeds are expected to

III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun

  • Class M 80/70/60
  • Class X 40/20/20
  • Proton 20/10/10
  • PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 10 Jun 177
  • Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 155/150/145
  • 90 Day Mean 10 Jun 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 020/028
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 025/027
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 015/020-010/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/20/20
  • Minor storm 15/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/30/30
  • Minor storm 30/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.