Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Jun 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
June 10, 2002
Filed under , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2002 Jun 10 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2002
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. Two optically
uncorrelated C1 x-ray flares comprised the flare activity for the
period. Region 9987 (S15W29) grew in magnetic complexity and
penumbral coverage today. Even so, several point brightenings and
intermittent dark surging were all that kept this region from being
quiescent during the past 24 hours. Region 9985 (N18W51) showed a
continued decay in spot count and magnetic complexity. Most other
active regions on the visible disk remain little changed. New
Region 9995 (N10W01) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 9987 has the potential to produce an isolated
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. A
coronal hole may have been responsible for the active conditions
that began near mid-period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 152
Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 150/145/150
90 Day Mean 10 Jun 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 009/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 005/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.