Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Jun 2002

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity

:Issued: 2002 Jun 10 2210 UTC

# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

#Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z

to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Two optically

uncorrelated C1 x-ray flares comprised the flare activity for the

period.  Region 9987 (S15W29) grew in magnetic complexity and

penumbral coverage today.  Even so, several point brightenings and

intermittent dark surging were all that kept this region from being

quiescent during the past 24 hours.  Region 9985 (N18W51) showed a

continued decay in spot count and magnetic complexity.  Most other

active regions on the visible disk remain little changed.  New

Region 9995 (N10W01) was numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at

low levels.  Region 9987 has the potential to produce an isolated

M-class flare.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels.  A

coronal hole may have been responsible for the active conditions

that began near mid-period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity

is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the

forecast period.

III.  Event Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           10 Jun 152

Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun  150/145/150

90 Day Mean        10 Jun 181

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  009/015

Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun  010/015

Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  005/010-005/008-005/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/15/15

Minor storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01