Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 July 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1520 (S16E19)
produced three M-class events during the period, the largest an
M2/1f flare at 10/0627Z. The region grew slightly in area and spot
count and maintained a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. Other activity included a C4/1f flare at 10/0834Z
from Region 1519 (S16W04) and a C8/Sf flare at 10/1345Z from Region
1521 (S22E05). Region 1521 indicated some elongation along its E/W
axis while Region 1519 decayed from a B-type group to a single H
spot. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the previous 24
hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a slight chance for X-class events for the next three
days (11 – 13 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominately quiet to active levels
with isolated minor storm intervals from 09/2100 – 2400Z. This
activity was most likely a result of residual CME effects from
recent flare activity from old Regions 1513 (N17, L=220) and 1515
(S17, L=206). ACE solar data indicated wind velocities steadily
increased through the period from 400 km/s to near 500 km/s. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field was generally south
throughout the period ranging between -5 to -10 nT while
interplanetary field strength ranged between 6 to 12 nT. At about
09/2100Z, the phi angle switched from a negative (toward)
orientation to a positive (away) orientation. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the next
three days (11 – 13 July).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M 80/80/80
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 173
Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 170/165/165
90 Day Mean 10 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 029/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/05/05