Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 July 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
July 10, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1087 (S19E57) is a
beta magnetic configuration and produced two B-class flares during
the period. The region shows occasional point brightenings and is
growing in both white light areal coverage and sunspot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare, and a slight
chance for a M-class event, from Region 1087.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for days one and two (11-12 July).
Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active conditions, are
expected for day three (13 July) due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 080
Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 080/080/078
90 Day Mean 10 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.