Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Jul 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Region 1024 (S25W79) was quiet and stable as it
approached the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with occasional unsettled
periods due to a high speed stream from a coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for day one (11 July), with a
slight chance for isolated active periods due to coronal hole
effects. Conditions are expected to be quiet for days two and three
(12-13 July).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 068
Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 10 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/05
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01