Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Jul 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jul 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels for 11-12 July with a chance for isolated minor storm conditions possible due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Activity levels for 13 July is expected to be mostly unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Jul 065
• Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 066/066/066
• 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 015/015-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/30/25
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/35/30
• Minor storm 15/20/15
• Major-severe storm 05/10/05