Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 963 (S06E40) produced 12 C-class flares, the largest of which was a C8.2/Sf at 10/1240Z. The region grew rapidly, approximately doubling in size in the past 24 hours. It is now an E-class, 15 spot region with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain low to moderate, with a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 963.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind data indicate the onset of a corotating interaction region beginning approximately 10/1400Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods on days one and two (11-12 July) due to a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet conditions are anticipated to return on day three (13 July).

III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul

• Class M 40/40/40
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Jul 078
• Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 080/080/085
• 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 007/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 015/015-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 40/30/10
• Minor storm 20/15/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 45/35/10
• Minor storm 25/20/05
• Major-severe storm 10/10/01