Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 January 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1393 (N17W70) produced
the largest flare; a C1 at 10/0153Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-flare from Regions 1391 (N12W25) and
1393.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft continues to be slightly elevated at approximately 420 –
460 km/s with the IMF Bz not varying much beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (11 January). On days 2 – 3
(12 – 13 January) quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with a
chance for active periods as a coronal hole high speed stream is
expected to become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 129
Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 130/125/120
90 Day Mean 10 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 004/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/20/20