Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 January 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Occasional
low-level B-class flares occurred, most of which were produced by
Region 1140 (N32W61). Region 1140 showed no significant changes
during the period and remained an Hsx-type spot. Region 1145
(N16E27) also showed no significant changes and remained a
simply-structured Bxo-type group. Regions 1142 (S17W88) and 1144
(S16W49) both decayed to plage during the period. New Region 1146
(N23E46), a single spot Axx type, was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (11 – 13 January).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. ACE
solar wind data indicated Earth was in a subsiding coronal hole
high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities gradually decreased from
642 to 487 km/s during the period. IMF Bz was variable and ranged
from +5 nT to -3 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet levels during the period (11 – 13 January).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 083
Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 082/080/080
90 Day Mean 10 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01