Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Jan 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jan 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1040 (N30E18)
produced several B-class flares during the past 24 hours. Region
1040 continued to grow during the past 24 hours and is classified as
a Eao-beta group with 15 spots and an area of approximately of 130
millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 1040.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (11 January). Quiet, with isolated
unsettled levels, are expected on day two (12 January) as a coronal
hole moves into a geoeffective position. Quiet to unsettled levels,
with a slight chance for active levels, are expected on day three
(13 January).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 084
Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 086/088/088
90 Day Mean 10 Jan 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/005-007/007-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/10/20
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01