Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed over the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for 11-12 January. Unsettled to isolated active conditions are expected on 13 January as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Jan 076
• Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 075/075/070
• 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 006/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/005-005/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/20
• Minor storm 05/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/25
• Minor storm 05/05/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10