Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Jan 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 10 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 719 (S08E55)
remains a two-spot beta magnetic configuration, with several minor
plage fluctuations. Region 718 (S07E46) continues to show no
notable activity. Region 720 (N09E69) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 719 continues to have a fair chance for flare
activity, but poses little threat for greater than an isolated
C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. Interplanetary
magnetic field and solar wind have both been relatively steady for
the last 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. No significant
disturbance anticipated for 11 Jan, but a large coronal hole is
moving into geoeffective position for 12 and 13 Jan. Most of the
high-speed solar wind stream will be above Earth’s orbit, and should
only provide a slight potential for active to isolated minor
storming levels.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
- Class M 15/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 10 Jan 090
- Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 085/090/090
- 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 003/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 003/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/008-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/25/25
- Minor storm 10/15/15
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
