Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Jan 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
January 10, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 10 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 010 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 719 (S08E55)
remains a two-spot beta magnetic configuration, with several minor
plage fluctuations. Region 718 (S07E46) continues to show no
notable activity. Region 720 (N09E69) was newly numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 719 continues to have a fair chance for flare
activity, but poses little threat for greater than an isolated
C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. Interplanetary
magnetic field and solar wind have both been relatively steady for
the last 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. No significant
disturbance anticipated for 11 Jan, but a large coronal hole is
moving into geoeffective position for 12 and 13 Jan. Most of the
high-speed solar wind stream will be above Earth’s orbit, and should
only provide a slight potential for active to isolated minor
storming levels.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan

  • Class M 15/15/15
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 10 Jan 090
  • Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 085/090/090
  • 90 Day Mean 10 Jan 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 003/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 003/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/008-010/015-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/25
  • Minor storm 10/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.