Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 February 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1153 produced a few
B-class and C-class events early in the period before rotating off
the disk. Region 1156 (S14E09) remained stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low over the next 3 days (11-13 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated period of
unsettled conditions between 10/06Z and 10/09Z at mid latitudes. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (11-13 February).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 091
Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 10 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01