Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Feb 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Today’s activity consisted of 3
C-class events, as well as numerous B-class events. Region 1045
(N22W39) produced the largest event of the day, a C3.7 flare at
10/1514Z, but is beginning to show signs of decay. Region 1046
(N24E28) and Region 1047 (S18E43) remain stable and quiet. There is
a recurrent, southern hemisphere coronal hole near the center disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominately low. However, there is a chance for an isolated
M-class flare for the next 3 days (11-13 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day 1 (11 February). An increase to
unsettled with a slight chance for active conditions is expected on
day 2 (12 February), and unsettled conditions are expected on day 3
(13 February). The activity is forecast as a response to CME
activity on 6 February.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M 30/20/20
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 091
Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 090/090/092
90 Day Mean 10 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 010/010-012/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/30
Minor storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 35/40/35
Minor storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01