Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Feb 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Feb 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 11 February. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream will rotate into a geoeffective position late that day. On 12 and 13 February the geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to active conditions with occasional periods of minor storming due to the high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Feb 076
• Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 012/015-015/020-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/25/25
• Minor storm 15/20/20
• Major-severe storm 05/10/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/30/30
• Minor storm 20/25/25
• Major-severe storm 10/15/15