Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Feb 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 10 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 041 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C1.7 flare occurred from
Region 734 (S04E57) at 10/0010Z. New Region 735 (S08E74) was
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE
showed a decline from approximately 750 km/s to 650 km/s during the
reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 11 February. Expect quiet to
unsettled conditions on 12 and 13 February as the coronal hole
stream moves out of geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Feb 114
• Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 115/115/110
• 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 014/025
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 010/016
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 008/012-008/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05