Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 10 2214 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. No significant
changes were noted on the disk or limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next three days (11 – 13 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft indicated a steady change in the solar wind magnetic
field structure from positive (away) to negative (toward) at about
10/0500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled levels with isolated active
periods for the next three days (11 – 13 December) due to recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 088
Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 088/088/089
90 Day Mean 10 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 010/010-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01