Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Dec 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
December 11, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 10 Dec 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 930 (S05E06) was only responsible for several B-class flares. However, this region has developed a delta within the southern penumbra of the leader spot and is now classified as a beta gamma delta magnetic group with approximately 440 millionths of area.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class activity from Region 930.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated around 620 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event crossed below 100 pfu’s at 10/1220 UTC and is decreasing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 11 December. On 12 and 13 December, conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end in the next 24 to 48 hours.

III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec

  • Class M 25/25/15
  • Class X 10/10/05
  • Proton 80/40/05
  • PCAF in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 10 Dec 090
  • Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 090/090/090
  • 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 006/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 008/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 008/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/15/15
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/20/15
  • Minor storm 15/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.